Doug Marrone and the Buffalo Bills’ offensive coaching staff have a problem of predictability to address during the bye week. (Photo: Robert Deutsch — USA Today Sports)
BBD Contributor: Josh Cornwall
The Buffalo Bills didn’t need a second-half comeback in a dominant 43-23 Week 8 win over the host New York Jets. The Bills led the game from cover to cover, forcing the Jets’ two-headed quarterback attack into six ugly turnovers, while Sammy Watkins did Sammy Watkins things, and improved to 5-3 heading into a perfectly timed bye week.
Buffalo now has a two-week preparation period for a game at home against the Kansas City Chiefs, which could make or break their playoff chances when the race comes down to tiebreakers in December. On paper, the Bills will take the big win over the Jets on Sunday, but it will take a better team effort in the second half of the season to keep their current pace of 10 wins.
Coaching Trends
I wholeheartedly admit that I’m one of those cliche “wear your emotion on your sleeves” types, and for better or worse, my online activity on Sunday heavily reflects that. I fully understand that getting mad at offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett or coach Doug Marrone or even the spotty offensive line can be over the top when the team is winning, despite severe inconsistency on offense. But where do we draw the line of what is fair criticism and what isn’t? Should the Bills be happy enough with wins because they haven’t had a winning season since Drew Bledsoe donned a red and blue buffalo on his helmet? What really are the realistic expectations for the Bills in the second half of the season and what do they need to do to get there?
I’ll start off by saying I’ve never liked the Hackett hiring from the start. His dad is a football legend in the college ranks and Marrone had the comfortability factor in hiring him because of his time at Syracuse, but the hiring was too much of an unknown after the Bills were already taking a gamble on Marrone. The offensive ingenuity Hackett and Marrone promised has been scarce at best, but enough big plays have been had this season to temporarily whet our appetites.
The plays in between the big plays and the sour taste of long stretches of stalled drives lingers into the days directly following game days.
Last week, I asked what the Bills’ identity was going to be over the final two months. Despite putting up 43 points on the Jets, I’m not sure they became any closer to answering that question. I’m even harder pressed to think we’ll get a glimpse of that true identity in the coming months.
The Bills have been a run-first team since 2005. A look at the bevy of Pro Bowl running backs they’ve stored on the roster over the past decade is a good indication as to why. That mentality hasn’t explicitly changed under Marrone and Co., but the execution and direction of the run game has shifted dramatically.
For all his faults, former coach Chan Gailey’s teams figured out ways to put C.J. Spiller into space and find holes up the gut for Fred Jackson. If not for a miserable defense, the Bills might have had shots at earning Wild Card berths with Gailey coaching and Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback.
The Bills are in a similar position as they were in 2011, except now the offense could be hole in their game that could drag them down.
Buffalo scored a touchdown on its first drive Sunday for the first time since the Toronto game against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12 of the 2013 season. Quarterback Kyle Orton looked perfect on the opening drive, and aside from a bad sack where neither edge rusher was blocked, the Bills offense had signs of life.
That would be the only time on Sunday where the Bills put together an efficient drive.
Big plays by Sammy Watkins saved an otherwise stagnant Bills offense on Sunday. (Photo: Tommy Gilligan — USA Today Sports)
Buffalo’s build up of its first-half lead was not pretty after that point, but the defense consistently set up short fields to at least put the sputtering offense in kicker Dan Carpenter’s range. Penalties and a sack eliminated two of those opportunities to kick long field goals. A lack of discipline and a commitment to predictability were key reasons for those mishaps.
After the Jets drove down the field and made it a 10-point game with less than two minutes on the clock in the first half, Buffalo lost four yards in just over a minute and handed the ball back over to the Jets, instead of orchestrating a drive for at least a field goal try. Following a trend of recent games, the Bills allowed the Jets to gain enough yardage for a 55-yard field goal try for Nick Folk, allowing the Jets to improbably enter halftime down just a touchdown despite turning the ball over four times in the first half.
Buffalo had seven offensive possessions in the second half. They didn’t gain a first down on their own accord until Boobie Dixon converted a 3rd-and-3 with a three-yard run with 1:20 remaining in the game. The Bills had two other first downs in the half, but both were due to penalties committed by the Jets.
The only time the Bills didn’t perform their predictable run-run-pass routine in the final 30 minutes was on the first drive of the half, when Orton was sacked on first down for holding onto the ball too long. In total, Buffalo went run-run-pass on nine of its 15 drives, on which they gained one first down. Do the math and 11 percent of the time the strategy works. If Sammy Watkins didn’t take a 61-yarder for a score and Scott Chandler didn’t catch a 12-yard touchdown off a turnover, those drives would have looked even worse.
Joe Buscagalia of WGR550 took the words right out of my mouth in his observations of yesterday’s game.
“In more decisions than just play calling, Marrone has showed that he is one of more conservative head coaches in the NFL,” Buscaglia wrote. “To this point it has not backfired on the head coach, but if any common media member or fan can pick up on their tendencies with a lead, a head coach on a different team will do the same. The Bills were overthinking their approach in the second half to a large degree, mostly because the Jets’ secondary is atrocious and was waiting to be picked apart. ”
There’s almost too much truth to Joe B’s sentiments. It’s easy for a coaching staff to cast off the observations of a beat reporter because they “don’t know the game,” but the pattern of predictability won’t help the team in pick ‘em games against the Chiefs and Dolphins in the coming month. The five offensive touchdowns mask a glaring weakness, and there have been no signs the Bills coaching staff will adapt to what the opposing defense is doing in-game.
Buffalo is not in a position to be playing not to lose games nor to overthink its opponents. Adjustments need to be a major part of the Bills’ arsenal in the second half of the year, as does the continuing maturity of its young offense.
Quick Hits
- Sammy Watkins is on pace for 76 catches and 1180 yards. His pace with Orton is actually higher—84 catches and 1,572 yards if averaged out over 16 games—but his slowish start with EJ Manuel at quarterback hurt that high-end projection.
- The Bills’ defensive line rotation is defying common sense at weird times. Buffalo came into Sunday having not allowed a rushing touchdown. Chris Ivory broke that trend early in the second quarter on a play that neither Marcell Dareus nor Kyle Williams was on the field. This comes off the heels of the Bills’ two best pass-rushers, Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes, not being in on crucial third-downs late in some earlier games. The rotation is a big reason for Buffalo staying fresh on defense, but the coaches need to read situations better when making personnel changes.
- Orton is sixth among qualifying starters with an average of exactly eight yards per passing attempt. Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo and Philip Rivers are four of the quarterbacks ahead of him, while Kirk Cousins is the outlier in that group.
- A stat I haven’t seen reported much: Buffalo is fourth-worst in the league in sacks allowed with 23. Of the teams who have given up more, only the Detroit Lions (24 sacks allowed) have a winning record.
